Investment Overview
SpaceX is the world's leading private aerospace manufacturer and space transportation company, founded in 2002 by Elon Musk to make humanity multiplanetary. In 2020, SpaceX became the first private company to send NASA astronauts to the ISS, marking the first crewed U.S. launch since 2011.
Key Highlights
- Valuation: $800B (current tender offer)
- Founded: 2002
- Headquarters: Texas, USA
- 2025E Revenue: $15.5B
- EBITDA Margin: 52% (2025E)
2025 Key Metrics
- 160+ Falcon 9 orbital launches
- 8M+ Starlink subscribers globally
- 9,000 Starlink satellites in constellation
- 85%+ of delivered payload mass to orbit
Business Segments
Starlink
SpaceX's satellite internet constellation has seen explosive growth:
- 8M+ active subscribers (November 2025)
- Projected 13-14M users by end of 2026
- Approved in 142 nations
- Expanding into Direct-to-Cell services with T-Mobile, One NZ, Optus, Rogers
- $100B+ Total Addressable Market
Launch Services
SpaceX dominates the commercial launch market:
- 85%+ market share of mass to orbit in 2025
- 60-65% of all global orbital launches
- Falcon 9: 591 launches completed, world's most reliable orbital rocket
- Falcon Heavy: 11 successful missions since 2018
Starship
The next-generation fully reusable spacecraft:
- 100+ metric tons payload capacity to LEO
- Target cost: $100 per kg (vs $15,000 for competitors)
- 11 flight tests completed as of December 2025
- Successful "Mechazilla" booster catch achieved
Starshield
Military-grade extension of Starlink for defense applications:
- $13B contract ceiling with U.S. Space Force
- High-assurance cryptographic systems
- Inter-satellite laser communication links
Investment Thesis
SpaceX is a unique generational company with 5-10 year advantage to competition. With dominant market positions in launch services (85%+ market share) and satellite communications (65%+ of satellites in space), plus transformative potential from Starship and Orbital Compute initiatives, the company is positioned for significant value creation.
Revenue expected to grow ~30% yearly from 2026-2030, reaching $63B by 2030.
Main Investors
Founders Fund, Google, Sequoia, a16z, Fidelity, Valor, Coatue, Baillie Gifford, DFJ
Risk Factors
- Execution risk on Starship scaling
- Regulatory challenges (FCC satellite approvals)
- Competition from Blue Origin
- Capital intensive business model